The Curious Case for the 532
The Premier League is fast approaching and that means one thing for us fantasy nerds, countless hours of unnecessary tinkering! There's really nothing quite like creating team draft after draft knowing the next preseason game/transfer will change everything whilst slowly losing your damn mind. As such I have decided to offer a great relief to this conundrum, a rather vague theoretical analysis of the upcoming Premier League season, free of form and impeding transfers. Let's dive in!
I am very fond of the "Adapt or die" quip as it perfectly demonstrates why last year I failed to make the top 10k (my previous two seasons were both below 4000 rank respectively). Last season was full of bandwagons, which simply did not bode well for my very conservative approach. Failing to bring in the right players early was my ultimate demise. But enough about my shortcomings, let's just cut into the meat of this analysis and figure out "why on earth is this noob suggesting we buy 5 premium defenders?" A perfectly valid question, one which I will respond with another question "why not?"
I have spent more hours than I am willing to admit lurking forums and websites, and the general consensus is;
1. 343 is king, followed by the 352
2. Spending lot's of money on defenders is a rookie mistake
I am here to tell you that from a theoretical standpoint these statements are all meaningless hogwash, and here's why;
Fantasy Premier League is a game of optimization (I know, a very significant observation). Quite simply, a team full of players that offer a higher value will always win. The significant caveat being the variable of captaincy, but let's not complicate things just yet.
Those are the top 5 defenders in terms of value from last season. Both mid and high priced defenders offered great output. King and Capoue were the only two outfield players to have a higher value (27.3 and 26.7 respectively). The difference is these two midfield gems over performed significantly, whereas the defenders were all fairly priced in the beginning of the season.
And here we have the values of the superstar forwards. Absolutely abysmal. But, once we factor in captaincy their prices start to make more sense.
So what do we make of this? It's really not that complicated, filling your team on the basis of value with one or a few players that offer captaincy is theoretically how you will score the most points based on this very simple analysis (bare with me a few more sentences, we have yet to take into account opportunity cost and the inevitable bandwagons).
The following team is just an example of what I'm on about. If we assume the premium defenders will score a high value just as their medium and low priced counterparts, then we are accumulating A LOT of extra points (this is a game of margins, after all). Let's say both Daniels and Alonso score a value of roughly around 23 each. We can simply use their value, multiply by their price, to receive their total score. Why is this significant? Because very rarely does a highly priced midfielder or striker represent great value. Lukaku had himself a one of a kind season which only netted him a value of 20.5. A great score for a captain, but only for a captain.
Finally, those of you who follow the Premier League closely will notice the recent switch to three at the back formations. This is where things get juicy. The likes of Milner, Alonso and Walker parading down the flanks to offer width and occasionally join the attack is an opportunity which is at least worth considering. This is what the success of this strategy relies on, whether or not these defenders will offer a significant attacking output. The top 6 teams almost always record 10+ clean sheets (primarily where most premium defenders play). The defensive returns are not really in question. It's whether or not the switch to the three at the back formations will continue to bolster their attacking returns. If so, this team will have a very nice collection of value, whilst still offering captaincy options with the likes of Lukaku, Coutinho and the Spurs duo of Eriksen and Alli.
In addition, there is a plethora of premium defenders to chose from. Absentees from this team include Kolasinac, Azpi (potentially moving to RWB), Trippier, Walker and Coleman as well as others that I'm just too lazy to look up right now.
The potential pitfall? The mid priced midfielders outperform the premium defenders in terms of value. If the likes of Ritchie and company gain traction, and another Michu, Mahrez or King type midfielder pops up, then this strategy becomes relatively less legitimate. But that's what wildcards are for, right? That is however just an if, because as of now we simply don't know whether or not this will be the case. Let's not forget many Championship studs fall flat on their face, like in the case of Ritchie. As of now the premium defenders have a proven track record and that's where my money is going.
And why the 532 as opposed to other 5 at the back formations? Simply for flexibility. In just one hit I can fit in the likes of Kane or Sanchez, if necessary.
Will this strategy work? In theory, yes. That's if my assumptions are to come true... Will it work? I have no @#$%ing clue. But it's certainly one, out of the few strategy's worth considering for the upcoming year.
(Note: In no way am I suggesting this is the BEST strategy, but rather, a VALID strategy which may work very well)
P.S. If you want to rip apart my analysis, kindly leave me a comment.
I am very fond of the "Adapt or die" quip as it perfectly demonstrates why last year I failed to make the top 10k (my previous two seasons were both below 4000 rank respectively). Last season was full of bandwagons, which simply did not bode well for my very conservative approach. Failing to bring in the right players early was my ultimate demise. But enough about my shortcomings, let's just cut into the meat of this analysis and figure out "why on earth is this noob suggesting we buy 5 premium defenders?" A perfectly valid question, one which I will respond with another question "why not?"
I have spent more hours than I am willing to admit lurking forums and websites, and the general consensus is;
1. 343 is king, followed by the 352
2. Spending lot's of money on defenders is a rookie mistake
I am here to tell you that from a theoretical standpoint these statements are all meaningless hogwash, and here's why;
Fantasy Premier League is a game of optimization (I know, a very significant observation). Quite simply, a team full of players that offer a higher value will always win. The significant caveat being the variable of captaincy, but let's not complicate things just yet.
And here we have the values of the superstar forwards. Absolutely abysmal. But, once we factor in captaincy their prices start to make more sense.
So what do we make of this? It's really not that complicated, filling your team on the basis of value with one or a few players that offer captaincy is theoretically how you will score the most points based on this very simple analysis (bare with me a few more sentences, we have yet to take into account opportunity cost and the inevitable bandwagons).
The following team is just an example of what I'm on about. If we assume the premium defenders will score a high value just as their medium and low priced counterparts, then we are accumulating A LOT of extra points (this is a game of margins, after all). Let's say both Daniels and Alonso score a value of roughly around 23 each. We can simply use their value, multiply by their price, to receive their total score. Why is this significant? Because very rarely does a highly priced midfielder or striker represent great value. Lukaku had himself a one of a kind season which only netted him a value of 20.5. A great score for a captain, but only for a captain.
Finally, those of you who follow the Premier League closely will notice the recent switch to three at the back formations. This is where things get juicy. The likes of Milner, Alonso and Walker parading down the flanks to offer width and occasionally join the attack is an opportunity which is at least worth considering. This is what the success of this strategy relies on, whether or not these defenders will offer a significant attacking output. The top 6 teams almost always record 10+ clean sheets (primarily where most premium defenders play). The defensive returns are not really in question. It's whether or not the switch to the three at the back formations will continue to bolster their attacking returns. If so, this team will have a very nice collection of value, whilst still offering captaincy options with the likes of Lukaku, Coutinho and the Spurs duo of Eriksen and Alli.
In addition, there is a plethora of premium defenders to chose from. Absentees from this team include Kolasinac, Azpi (potentially moving to RWB), Trippier, Walker and Coleman as well as others that I'm just too lazy to look up right now.
The potential pitfall? The mid priced midfielders outperform the premium defenders in terms of value. If the likes of Ritchie and company gain traction, and another Michu, Mahrez or King type midfielder pops up, then this strategy becomes relatively less legitimate. But that's what wildcards are for, right? That is however just an if, because as of now we simply don't know whether or not this will be the case. Let's not forget many Championship studs fall flat on their face, like in the case of Ritchie. As of now the premium defenders have a proven track record and that's where my money is going.
And why the 532 as opposed to other 5 at the back formations? Simply for flexibility. In just one hit I can fit in the likes of Kane or Sanchez, if necessary.
Will this strategy work? In theory, yes. That's if my assumptions are to come true... Will it work? I have no @#$%ing clue. But it's certainly one, out of the few strategy's worth considering for the upcoming year.
(Note: In no way am I suggesting this is the BEST strategy, but rather, a VALID strategy which may work very well)
P.S. If you want to rip apart my analysis, kindly leave me a comment.
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